2003-01-24T09:24:00.000-08:00

Note: The following is a draft of a piece presented to the RB writing group on 1.23.03 Originally posted 1.24.03
DRAFT

January 25, 2003
The Lonely Leader:
A Dialogue With the Vice President
By Ronald Bleier

In Seymour’s dream he was in the Vice President’s bedroom. It was late evening, about 11: 30 PM. The Vice President was alone, getting ready for bed. He was in his pajamas just getting under the covers. It was a large single bed with large night tables stacked with papers and magazines on either side. The Vice President used the remote to tune in CNN. He hit the mute and turned to pick up a folder marked classified. He turned to the title page, took a deep breath, and looked up at the ceiling as if he were lost in thought.

Howard wondered how he should approach the Vice President. He had never been in such a situation.
He coughed. Excuse me, Mr. Vice President.
The Vice President heard him. He was startled and began looking around wildly to find the source of the voice.
--Who’s there? he fairly shouted

It was then that Seymour realized that the Vice President couldn’t see him. He was invisible. He had somehow attained Harry Potter’s cloak of invisibility. He briefly examined himself. He touched his arms, his clothes. They seemed real enough. It was indeed a puzzlement, but there was no time to figure things out now. He had to respond to the Vice President.

-- Don’t be alarmed, it’s only Seymour, I mean you no harm. I’m your political opponent, he added stupidly, but I mean you no harm.
Apparently these were the wrong words. The Vice President appeared even more alarmed.

--You know, said the Vice President in a slow, carefully measured voice as he looked around for a weapon. I could have 20 guys in here in a minute and they could see to you, whoever, whatever you are. As he spoke, the Vice President put down his folder and picked up a magazine from the night table which he rolled up and held ready as if to ward off blows. Nevertheless, he remained in bed, sitting up and alert. He was trying to discover the source of the voice: he seemed to think it might be piped in from somewhere.

- – I can call in the Secret Service at a moment’s notice, he said, his voice breaking slightly.
Seymour attempted as reassuring a voice as he could manage, hoping to inject at the same time a note of authority.

--Don’t be alarmed, he repeated. I just want to talk some politics for awhile and then I’ll leave you alone.

Perhaps Seymour had found the right tone of voice, or perhaps it was simply that the Vice President began to understand that that he was not in danger and he began to be curious as to this new phenomena. Was the Vice President simply biding time while trying to figure out a way to arrest the intruder. In any event, his body language shifted to the extent that Howard felt emboldened to continue.

--Look, said Seymour. I just want to talk a little politics.
--Well, why don’t you make an appointment,

Seymour laughed. Listen, Mr. Vice President, as I said, you don’t have to be afraid of me. I’m going to do you no harm. Think of it from my point of view. I’m not exactly in the most comfortable situation. I feel like I’m intruding. Were I capable and had I wanted to, I might have already done you harm. But any sort of violence is against the rules. At this the Vice President appeared to relax. Perhaps he likes rules, wondered Seymour.

-- All I can do is talk to you, Seymour continued. (He wondered if he should reveal that the Vice President could order him out at any time, but he thought that he would wait awhile and see what happened.) So you see, there’s nothing to fear from me, at least physically.

--Well who are you and what do you want? asked the Vice President after a pause.
-- My name’s Seymour, and I just want to talk politics, he repeated, feeling lame.
--Well, what is it? said the Vice President, getting irritated.

Begin debate

-- Your campaign to attack Iraq; it’s a terrible thing you’re doing because our government is attacking another country without any provocation or legitimate threat. It’s a matter of unprovoked aggression. Iraq has made no threat against us or against any of its neighbors. Moreover it’s been under sanctions for more than 10 years; its military is degraded, its economy a shadow of what it was. And now that the North Korean situation has emerged, the rationale for invading Iraq has been exposed as illegitimate, since Iraq has accepted the weapons inspectors regime while North Korea taunts us with its nuclear weapons program. The double standard is scandalous and jaw dropping, and makes a mockery of your rationale of making war to disarm Iraq.

--It’s true that the North Koreans have thrown a spanner into the works, said the Vice President. But don’t worry about those North Korean jokers, we’ll settle their hash when the time comes, but it’ll be on our schedule not theirs. But getting back to Saddam, the American people understand very well that we’re dealing with an extraordinary potential threat. How can we trust Saddam Hussein? He has a track record of terrible horrors. He’s a loose cannon. The American people are behind us 100%. Do you think that they want us to stop now? Congress is on board, they’ve given us the authority. And so has the international community. The UN Security council supported us with a 15 to nothing resolution. The situation is very clear.

--It’s far from clear, Mr. Vice President. Virtually the whole world stands against the United States on this one. France and Germany have been outspoken in their opposition. There have been massive demonstrations all over the world, including in this country, hundreds of thousands right here in Washington D.C.

--Whoa, slow down a bit, son. For one thing the whole world isn’t against us. Far from it. Much of Europe is on our side aside from Germany and France who want to make some waves for domestic reasons. And as far as these domestic demonstrations are concerned, you needn’t be concerned. They don’t amount to a hill of beans.

--What do you mean? Seymour asked.
--Look, Guy, you don’t mind if I call you, Guy, do you?
--My name’s Seymour.
--Ok, Seymour. It’s like this. You let out some steam out with these demonstrations. That’s the genius of democracy. You allow these people to do their thing, they go home and everybody’s happy.
--But this last one in the middle of January, with hundreds of thousands marching in the freezing weather, that must give you pause. It got plenty of news coverage. People are taking it seriously.
--Yes, said the Vice President, his brow furrowing for a moment. And it’s true that the Vietnam protests weren’t fun to live through. However these protests are a sign to us that we must pursue our war plans. Once we go in there and take out Saddam, all the protests will stop. Also it’s important that we go in quickly, get it done quickly so as to stabilize the stock market, oil supplies and so on. Once that’s done, when the dust settles, we’re home free. The President will be a hero for taking out Saddam and his ratings will go through the roof, and stay there. Then we can walk on water.
--I don’t know if it’s going to be so simple, said Seymour. The president’s poll numbers are dropping. The market’s been going down due to the war. People aren’t buying and corporations are afraid to invest because people are afraid to spend money now. The public would much rather allow the weapons inspectors in Iraq to continue. They don’t want them interrupted. They’d clearly prefer not to have a war because they don’t see Iraq as a threat despite the unremitting propaganda since September.

--It’s true, the Vice President acknowledged, that we’re going through a rough patch now, but that’s not going to last for much longer. Also the President’s State of the Union should help to turn things around.
--For the sake of discussion, let’s grant that you will be allowed to pursue this war…
--Don’t you doubt it for a second, said the Vice President.

--Fine, said Seymour. Granted. But what about the aftermath, what about the collateral damage? What about the Iraqi casualties? What about the hundreds of thousands of refugees that will be created. What about the Iraqi people who won’t have access to government rations. Remember, the Iraqi people are not as wealthy as they were in 1991, nor as self sufficient.

--That’s why we’re planning on a short war said the Vice President. And you should know that the Iraqi people are stocking up on food and staples. The Iraqi people are resilient. They’ll be ready, especially if it’s a short war. More than anyone else, they want us to rid them of their vicious dictator. And that’s why it’s important that we have tight control of the country in the aftermath. We want to minimize the refugee issue. We want to minimize the chaos.

--But there is so much more to a war in the Middle East, countered Seymour. What about regional instability? What is going to happen to Iraq, first of all? Will it be split up into different parts with the north and west going to Turkey and Jordan? What is going to happen in countries like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, some of the Gulf States, Egypt, Pakistan where the people are 100% against an attack by the United States on an Islamic country. What’s going to happen to the Palestinians? Will they come under increasing pressure from Ariel Sharon? There are rumors that the Israelis might use the war against Iraq as a screen to expel massive numbers of Palestinians.

--I’m not saying everything is going to be perfect, said the Vice President. But you worrywarts have been proven wrong so many times. For example, you said similar things about Desert Storm and even about Afghanistan. In any event you can expect that we have plans for looking at all kinds of contingencies.
--Yes, that’s partly what worries us. We are concerned that you are looking to redraw the map of the Middle East. We’re afraid that you want to change several regimes to make them more accommodating to U.S. and Israeli interests.

--Israel’s the only democracy in the Middle East, answered the Vice President. What we want is for the whole Middle East and later the rest of the world to take on our values.

--Well, Mr. Vice President, for one thing. its questionable to call Israel a democracy since it’s been in military occupation of Palestinian territory for more than 35 years. And even the Israeli Arabs are treated as second class citizens.

--The Arabs in Israel never had it so good. They vote in the elections don’t they. They choose their own representatives. They go to schools, they have jobs. They do all the things Israelis do.

--But they are effectively excluded from the professions, government positions, and many businesses. They suffer when it comes to government services. Indeed, 60,000 Israeli Arabs live in unrecognized villages where they get no electricity, sewage services, no paved roads. Palestinians are not allowed to join the army, which further cuts them off from most government benefits like social security, unemployment compensation, and so on..

--Israel, as you know has an unimaginable security problem, the likes of which we have not yet seen here, said the Vice President. Their whole country is rife with suicide bombers. Can you imagine letting them into the army?

--Why not, Mr. Vice President, said Seymour. Palestinians are people too. Once you give them a stake in the country, once you allow them a future, then you have a prospect for peace. But at the moment, the U.S. is cooperating in creating a huge jail in Gaza and the West Bank. Many of the localities are under long curfews. They can’t travel freely, they can’t go to work, go to school. They are cooped up like prisoners, their lives are intolerable. There is nothing for them to do or to strive for.

--You know very well that the Israelis have to take security measures. They have to be proactive and reactive as well.

-- Most worrisome is that your administration no longer pretends to be an honest broker. You allow Ariel Sharon a total free hand no matter what outrage he commits.
--Have you ever had to tangle with Sharon? the Vice President muttered as if to himself. What do you expect us to do, do you expect us to work with Arafat? He can go hang himself for all we care.
…
Endless war
--What you are doing, Mr. Vice President is making war on the Islamic world.
--What do you mean, countered the Vice President, we have no designs on the Islamic world.
--You have made no secret that you have Iran in your sights. Indeed, you named them in your “axis of evil” speech.
--Yes, that’s true, we want to try to help the Iranians bring democracy to their country. If they were properly run, they wouldn’t be sponsoring Hezbollah attacks on Israel and their nuclear program is very dangerous. You cannot expect us to allow it to continue without some sort of response.
--First of all, said Seymour, Hezbollah had every right to defend itself from the Israeli occupation of Lebanon. And even if Iran goes forward with a nuclear program, it won’t be the first country in the Middle East to introduce nuclear weapons into the area.
--Are you actually advocating that we do nothing if Iran embarks on a nuclear program? asked the Vice President. That’s irresponsible. How can I be having this conversation?

After a moment’s pause, he resumed. –We made it very clear in our national security document that we will not tolerate any threat to our interests here, in the Middle East or elsewhere and we certainly will not tolerate a nuclear program in Iran.
….
--Yes, there are problems and hotspots in the Middle East, but it is significant that the path you choose always comes down to belligerency, conflict and war. You have eschewed an accommodationist, multilateral, live and let live approach. Look at the way you have dealt with Iran. By the time Clinton left office, there was a strong constituency in Iran for an accommodation with the United States, but that was terminated when you named them as a member of the “axis of evil.” The effect in Iran was to set back the liberals, and make it impossible for them to advocate closer relations with the U.S. You used a similar approach with Yasser Arafat and the Palestinian Authority. Before you ostracized Arafat, there might have been an opening in the Palestinian community to replace him especially if there were the right kind of encouragement from the U.S.

--You’ve got it all backwards. If he goes, it’ll be because of our pressure.

--But if that is the case, why is he more entrenched than ever. And similarly in Iran, the hardliners are in the ascendant.
--But that can’t go on forever, said the Vice President. A change is going to come, if we have anything to say about it.
--Tell me something, Mr. Vice President, is it too cynical to argue that the real purpose of your Iran policy, your policy against North Korea and your anti-Arafat policy is to harden positions on all sides, so as to make conflict and perhaps war inevitable. Now that Iran is united against an attack from the United States, it is easier to demonize them and create a pretext for war. The same with the Palestinians. With Arafat as their representative it is easier for the United States and Israel to treat them harshly. Arafat is worth much more alive than dead or exiled to Sharon – and to the United States for that matter. Arafat makes the perfect partner, not for peace but for a counterweight to Sharon’s depredations, his atrocities. Without Arafat as the bogeyman, where would Sharon be?
--People will judge us by the effects of our actions. So you will have to decide for yourself what our motivations are. But let me tell you liberals something. It’s a cruel and unforgiving world out there. You have to hit them before they hit you. Our country is strong. We’re the only superpower. But we’re not invulnerable. We have to define and locate our enemies before they can gather the strength to attack us.
--Yes, I see your point, Mr. Vice President, but aren’t you building a straw man? No one says we shouldn’t be vigilant. But your administration is inviting conflict and war with your unilateral swaggering, if you’ll pardon the expression. If you continue in this attack you are driving the whole world to rally and unite against you. By attacking Iraq, for example, you are creating fear in the hearts of many Americans. When you invade Iraq, without any provocation, without any justification, it can only serve to enrage hundreds of thousands, even millions, and many fear that it will lead to more attempts by Al-Quaeda on American interests, and perhaps again on our homeland. You are turning America into the scourge of the world.
--Ha, laughed the Vice President. And would that be a bad thing? It’s important that people fear us. We’re not a paper tiger. We hit hard when necessary. If our homeland gets attacked again, it might wake people up to the danger that still exists out there and would make those who are blind realize that we need extraordinary measures here and abroad to maintain our security.
--Is it really security that you’re after, Mr. Vice President, or is your administration rather pushing an agenda of endless war fighting, and nuclear war fighting at that. We thought that was discredited 20 years ago when the Reagan administration tried to make nuclear war fighting national policy.

--Yes, it’s true that the 80s were not ripe for such clarity. But the world’s a different place today, thank goodness. Let me explain something. Ours is a war fighting scenario, possibly even to the point of using tactical, battlefield nuclear weapons. If people get hurt, well that’s war. Nobody said war was a picnic. And you can be sure more of their people will be hurt than ours. But in the end, our power and our righteousness will come out on top. Don’t you understand, that we live in a dog eat dog world. We’re number one and they’re all gunning for us. We have to hit them hard before they hit us.

--But look at what your administration is doing to the economy, it’s going to hurt national security, it’s going to unnecessarily impact negatively on hundreds of millions of people all over the world and on Americans as well. Just look at what’s happening to state Budgets. The states are more than $60 billion in the red. All of them are crying desperately for help and you’ve told them to drop dead.

--So what’s wrong with that, countered the Vice President. They’ll have to reduce spending. Isn’t that good? Tax cuts help prevent wasteful spending and wasteful programs.

--Yes, Mr. Vice President, but it’s a question of degree and priorities. Instead of spending for infrastructure, health and education, and in ways that could help our economy, put money into the pockets of the majority of the people, our government is diverting as much as possible to the military and for tax cuts to the wealthy.

--There you go exaggerating again, said the Vice President, do you know how much we’re spending on road building, supporting agriculture. Education spending is the highest in years. You’re talking out of your hat. It’s a matter of priorities. We believe in taking care of security first.
…
Destroying FDR’s Legacy
--Don’t you see, said Seymour, that in destroying FDR’s legacy, social security, the safety net, progressive taxation, reasonable regulation, you’re destroying the very basis of our prosperity and security? This is the foundation upon which the structure rests. For example, even after the outrageous Wall Street scandals, with Enron, World Com, Arthur Anderson, even now your administration refuses to add resources to the SEC or to support meaningful reform?. Isn’t that shortsighted, Mr. Vice President? Isn’t it important to give investors a sense of transparency and control if you want a strong and healthy stock market. Doesn’t the reelection of this administration depend on a healthy flourishing economy? And now you want to destroy social security. Don’t you see that social security has been the most successful redistributive program to come out of the New Deal. By putting spending power into the hands of a formerly poor class it has undergirt our economy, and prevented the ruin of millions, with all the attendant social costs.

--First of all, the stock market will take care of itself, replied the Vice President. Don’t you worry. The market has its ups and downs, and investors are smart enough to understand that they are taking risks and recent experience has taught them a valuable lesson. I guarantee that they are much more careful nowadays about the advice they listen to. As far as the New Deal, the sooner we get rid of the remnant of FDR’s legacy the better.

Ending
Now the Vice President was getting impatient. Look, I don’t have much time here. You know how it is, busy day tomorrow. They’re getting me up earlier and earlier for these meetings and reports and so on. I think it’s past time I asked you to excuse me.
Who’s in charge?
Mr. Vice President, one last thing before I go, if you don’t mind one more question.
--Well, all right
--Mr Vice President, a lot of people say that it’s you who is really running this government, that you’re the one with the real power.
(Wearily), Yes, it’s an unstoppable rumor. The kernel of truth is that I’m probably the most influential and hardest working VP in history. So if that’s your idea, go ahead and run with it. But there’s only one President at a time. Our president is one of those people who are always going to be underestimated, and we have already seen how he has used it to benefit his country, so I really needn’t say more about it.
…
Preview of chapter 2
Seymour woke up the next morning exhilarated. Then he recalled his dream. Aha, that’s why there’s a smile on my face, he thought.
Did it really happen, he wondered. It was a dream. Of course it didn’t happen.
--But it seemed so real…Hmm, I wonder. Is there such a thing as a real dream?
--Maybe it was real in a way. Seymour wondered if his dream was somehow also shared by the Vice President in some way. He felt that he had somehow made a connection with the Vice President. Hmmm. Interesting that the Vice President made no concessions. But that’s just like real life, isn’t it. I wonder if this was a one time event or if I can somehow make it happen again.
--What a strange thought. How could he make a dream happen again. But for Seymour it seemed to make a strange sort of sense. Somehow he sensed that he had vaulted himself or been vaulted into a place where he had achieved some measure of control. Seymour smiled.

…

In the next chapter, the President is seen as he walks from the helicopter to the White House with a copy of Noam Chomsky’s book 9/11 in his hand. A reporter notices and raises the question at the press briefing. At first the White House issues a non denial denial. But they are eventually forced to acknowledge it and they try to come up with an explanation. The president is an eclectic reader, says the spokesperson, he likes to get opinions from all sides.
…

After the war against Iraq starts
Seymour reappears in the Vice President’s bedroom.
Oh, it’s you again, almost as if the Vice President was expecting him, and even somehow looking forward to it, perhaps as a way to think through his ideas.

--So you’ve gone and done it, said Seymour. You’ve started the war.
--Was there any doubt? We couldn’t have telegraphed it any clearer.
--I suppose not.
….

The Lonely Leader: A Dialogue with the VP